Terminal Volatility Index
North American Container Terminals · Q1 2026
Executive Summary
The Terminal Volatility Index (TVI) is the first standardized quarterly measure of cargo receiving window stability at North American container terminals. It provides exporters, drayage operators, and freight forwarders with a comparable metric for how reliably a terminal's ERD and CY Cut dates hold between publication and execution.
In Q1 2026, the cross-terminal mean TVI stood at 34.1, with volatility ranging across a 59-point spread within the same port complex. Across all window changes in the cohort, 61.7% arrived inside the 14-day planning horizon before ERD.
Terminal volatility is not noise. It is a structural feature of modern container logistics - measurable, comparable, and persistent.
Key Findings
Four structural patterns emerged from 17,000+ CRW change events across the measurement window.
Window changes arrive inside the 14-day planning horizon
The period when drayage is being scheduled and exporter options are narrowing - not after execution has begun.
Pacific Northwest carries the highest regional mean
Tacoma's Husky Terminal scores 61.3 against a cross-terminal mean of 34.1. The PNW regional mean runs 15.7% above the cross-terminal average.
TraPac LA shows the highest planning-horizon concentration
82.5% of CRW changes at TraPac Los Angeles arrive inside the 14-day window before ERD - well above the 61.7% cross-terminal share.
Bay Area anchors the stable tier
Oakland International Container Terminal (OICT) scores 6.2, the lowest of any ranked terminal. The Bay Area regional mean of 23.2 sits 32% below the cross-terminal average.
Q1 2026 Terminal Rankings
25 ranked terminals across 10 ports. Cross-terminal mean: 34.1.
| # | Terminal | Port | TVI Score | Tier | Schedules |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yusen Terminals (YTI) | Los Angeles | 76.8 | High | 44 |
| 2 | Husky Terminal | Tacoma | 61.3 | Elevated | 30 |
| 3 | Washington United Terminal | Tacoma | 55 | Elevated | 43 |
| 4 | TraPac Los Angeles | Los Angeles | 52 | Elevated | 49 |
| 5 | Garden City Terminal | Savannah | 48.7 | Moderate | 681 |
| 6 | Long Beach Container Terminal (LBCT) | Long Beach | 37.3 | Moderate | 73 |
| 7 | Port Liberty New York | New York / New Jersey | 36.4 | Moderate | 69 |
| 8 | Barbours Cut Terminal | Houston | 35.9 | Moderate | 81 |
| 9 | Bayport Container Terminal | Houston | 34.9 | Moderate | 169 |
| 10 | APM Terminal Elizabeth | Newark / Elizabeth | 34.7 | Moderate | 93 |
| 11 | TraPac Oakland | Oakland | 33.9 | Moderate | 37 |
| 12 | Virginia International Gateway | Norfolk | 31.5 | Moderate | 340 |
| 13 | Terminal 5 | Seattle | 30.2 | Moderate | 40 |
| 14 | Pierce County Terminal | Tacoma | 29.9 | Stable | 31 |
| 15 | Everport Terminal Services (Oakland) | Oakland | 29.4 | Stable | 58 |
| 16 | Port Liberty Bayonne | New York / New Jersey | 29.3 | Stable | 35 |
| 17 | Total Terminals International (TTLB) | Long Beach | 27.3 | Stable | 72 |
| 18 | Norfolk International Terminals | Norfolk | 26.6 | Stable | 313 |
| 19 | Pacific Container Terminal | Long Beach | 26.4 | Stable | 37 |
| 20 | Everport Terminal Services (Los Angeles) | Los Angeles | 26.1 | Stable | 39 |
| 21 | Ocean Terminal | Savannah | 25.3 | Stable | 66 |
| 22 | T18 SSA Marine | Seattle | 20.8 | Stable | 77 |
| 23 | Port Newark Container Terminal | Newark / Elizabeth | 18.3 | Stable | 168 |
| 24 | Fenix Marine Services | Los Angeles | 18.1 | Stable | 93 |
| 25 | Oakland International Container Terminal (OICT) | Oakland | 6.2 | Stable | 192 |
When Window Changes Arrive
61.7% of all window changes arrive within 14 days of the ERD. 14.0% arrive within 72 hours of ERD - after drayage is dispatched and containers are stuffed.
- Within 14 days before ERD
- 61.7%
- Within 72 hours of ERD (subset)
- 14.0%
Want to see the timing profile on your own vessels and bookings? Ava pulls the same signal on every shipment you track.
See this on your shipments →Operational Implications
What the data means for how exporters and drayage teams plan execution.
Buffer planning should be terminal-specific
A uniform buffer applied across terminals wastes capacity at stable locations and underprepares for volatile ones. The 59-point within-port spread makes this concrete.
Gate appointment timing requires volatility adjustment
Booking a gate slot at an Elevated-tier terminal at T-3 days carries different execution risk than at a Stable-tier terminal. Current practice treats them the same.
Treat the planning horizon as active monitoring
The 14-day window is not pre-execution. It is where structural change arrives. Lock-in decisions made without monitoring through that window are fragile.
Roll risk planning should be volatility-informed
Terminal tier is a leading indicator of roll risk. Fleet-level roll rates flatten this signal; terminal-level rates reveal it.
Roadmap
What the TVI covers next. Release cadence is quarterly.
Six additional ports
Baltimore, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Port Everglades, Miami, Mobile - expanding coverage across the Gulf and East Coasts.
Port composites + seasonal profiles
Aggregate port-level volatility indices and a first pass at seasonal variance by commodity gateway.
Carrier service volatility layer
Service-string-level measurements to distinguish terminal effect from alliance rotation effect.
Freight rate integration + cost model
Tie TVI tiering to spot and contract rate exposure. A first attempt at a volatility-adjusted cost model for exporters.
Methodology
The Terminal Volatility Index summarizes two things across every vessel schedule at each measured terminal: how often the earliest receiving date (ERD) and the cargo yard cut-off (CY Cut) get revised, and how close to ERD those revisions arrive.
Scope
- Fields measured: ERD and CY Cut revisions only. Other fields (ETA, ETD, documentation cut, and empty pickup) are excluded to keep the index focused on the cargo receiving window.
- Trivial revisions excluded: Very small adjustments are filtered out so the index reflects operationally meaningful changes.
- Outlier handling: Extreme single-vessel revisions are trimmed before scoring so tails do not pull a terminal's score around.
Scoring
Each terminal receives a single score on the published 0-100 scale, with higher scores indicating greater volatility. Stability tiers (Stable / Moderate / Elevated / High) and the score-to-tier assignment follow the internal methodology pack and are held consistent across publications.
Data source and cadence
The underlying data is sourced from terminal and carrier publication feeds, captured in near-real-time and reconciled against final terminal records. The index is published quarterly. The Q1 2026 edition covers the 150-day window from November 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026.
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